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What is Betting Value….And How to Find it
Betting value is both a metaphorical and mathematical statement. When a bettor says they have ‘found some value’, they are basically saying that they have found a wager that offers a disproportionate amount of profit to the probability of it being successful.
An example in football, for instance, would be let’s say that Arsenal have w10beton their last five matches, while Manchester United have lost their last five. Yet the bookmakers have made United their favourites to win the game, with Arsenal as the outsiders. Here, a punter could place a bet on Arsenal and legitimately say they had ‘found value’.
So that is the concept of betting value explained, but how do we calculate it?
Calculating Betting Value
To calculate betting value we first need to understand how much we will win from a specific bet. Here is an example using the fractional odds format from 10Bet:
Chelsea (1/2), West Ham (11/2), The Draw (23/10)
Here the bookmakers believe that Chelsea will win quite comfortably. This is confirmed by the odds, where Chelsea are priced in such a way that you will receive half of your stake in winnings as well as your stake returned to you.
So, if you bet 10€ on Chelsea to win, your total return would be 15€ (5€ winnings and your 10€ stake returned).
To work out our profit on West Ham, we have to turn that 11/2 fraction into something more manageable; we can break it down to 5.5/1 by dividing both halves by two. So, if we stake 10€ we win 55€, plus we get our 10€ stake returned.
If we bet on the draw, we can calculate that we would win 2.3 times our stake (by breaking the 23/10 odds offered down to 2.3/1). So, for a 10€ wager we would return a total of 33€ (23€ winnings plus 10€ stake back).
Advanced Betting Value
As you become a more experience bettor you will begin to understand the notion of value more and more. What makes one particular bet better value than another?
That is linked to the odds offered and the probability of it being successful, but as you learn more about betting this will become second nature to you.